Movies Oscar Preview Your Winning Oscar Ballot Is Here

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Movies: Oscar Preview -- Your Winning Oscar Ballot Is Here! If you want to win big at your Oscar party and pick the winners of the Academy Awards, I have one simple piece of advice: don't watch any of the movies. If you watch the movies,you get caught up in what's actually good, what you loved and what you hated, ratherthan the only question that matters: what will win. It's liking betting on your collegesports team. No one wants to bet against their own school. It's a great way to lose money. Like most people, I don't follow my own advice. So here is my Oscar ballot with all its quirks and personal preferences. I can't guarantee you'll win your betting pool. But if youhave watched a lot of the nominees, I can guarantee the Oscars will pick at least onewinner that drives you absolutely bonkers. ("How could they possibly...??!!??") Hey, that'shalf the fun. I put the shorts at the bottom in their own section because most people don'tsee them and they're really hard to pick this year and worth discussing more fully. Best Picture -- Argo Best Director -- Steven Spielberg/ Lincoln Best Actor -- Daniel Day-Lewis/ Lincoln Best Actress -- Emmanuelle Riva/ Amour Best Supporting Actor --Robert De Niro/ Silver Linings Playbook Best Supporting Actress -- Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables Best Writing Original Screenplay -- Django Unchained /Quentin Tarantino Best Writing Adapted Screenplay -- Argo /Chris Terrio Best Animated Film -- Wreck-It Ralph Best Foreign Film -- Amour Best Documentary -- Searching For Sugar ManBest Original Score -- Life Of Pi /Mychael Danna Best Original Song -- "Skyfall" from SkyfallBest Sound Editing -- Life Of Pi /Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton Best Sound Mixing -- Les Miserables /Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes Best Production Design -- Lincoln /Rick Carter and Jim Erickson Best Cinematography -- Life Of Pi /Claudio Miranda Best Makeup and Hairstyling -- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey -- Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami LaneBest Costume Design -- Anna Karenina /Jacqueline Durran Best Film Editing -- Argo /William Goldenberg Best Visual Effects -- Life Of Pi /Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer and Donald R. ElliottBest Animated Short -- Fresh GuacamoleBest Live Action Short -- CurfewBest Documentary Short -- Open Heart BEST PICTUREAmour May 2, 2014 This is the print preview: Back to normal view » Posted: 02/22/2013 5:20 pmArgo Beasts Of The Southern Wild Django UnchainedLes MiserablesLife Of PiLincolnSilver Linings PlaybookZero Dark Thirty If I were voting, I'd pick Amour . I'd also be very happy if Django Unchained or Beasts Of The Southern Wild shocked everyone. (Not gonna happen.) I was decidedly not a fan of Life Of Pi, so that's the win that would frustrate and annoy me the most, which is what Oscar truly loves to do. But I'll go with the smart money on this. The Winner: Argo BEST DIRECTOR Michael Haneke -- Amour Ang Lee -- Life Of Pi David O. Russell -- Silver Linings Playbook Steven Spielberg -- LincolnBenh Zeitlin -- Beasts Of The Southern Wild If i were voting, I'd pick Michael Haneke, under the quaint notion that the best film of the year must by definition include the best direction of the year. Haneke is a rigorousfilmmaker whose movies I have admired but rarely loved. This is an unexpected late careerturn which, while hardly sentimental, is far more open-hearted and emotional than onewould expect from Haneke. It's the very reason this movie about an elderly couple facingdeclining health is not maudlin. For heaven's sake, go see it in a theater. This is not onefor popping into your DVD player, pausing while you answer your phone or surf the weband so on. I'd also be delighted if Benh Zeitlin won for Beasts , despide that annoying "h" in his name. The three other movies were all strongly admired by voters so anything ispossible here. But the smart money is on the one-time front runner Lincoln . The Winner: Steven Spielberg -- Lincoln BEST ACTORBradley Cooper -- Silver Linings Playbook Daniel Day-Lewis -- LincolnHugh Jackman -- Les MiserablesJoaquin Phoenix -- The MasterDenzel Washington -- Flight If I were voting, I'd be tempted to pick Joaquin Phoenix for his unlikable, unknowable, squirrelly (in every sense :) turn in The Master. But ultimately I'd be ashamed to give it to anyone but Day-Lewis. The Academy feels the same way. Perhaps it's most notable for notfeeling like a flashy, big performance. You just spend the movie wondering how theytracked Lincoln down and convinced him to star in this movie. The Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis -- LincolnBEST ACTRESS Jessica Chastain -- Zero Dark Thirty Jennifer Lawrence -- Silver Linings PlaybookEmmanuelle Riva -- AmourQuvenzhane Wallis -- Beasts Of The Southern WildNaomi Watts -- The Impossible The smart money is on Jennifer Lawrence. But having seen Amour , I find it difficult to imagine any voter who watches it choosing anyone but Riva. She's an iconic Frenchactress, she would be the oldest winner in Oscar history, it would acknowledge this great film (and the performance of her co-star Jean-Louis Trintignant, which is just as marvelous) and it's her birthday on Oscar night! As a bonus, it's also one of the mostremarkable screen performances you'll ever see. If you wanna play it safe, go for Lawrence, I guess. But there's a real chance for an upset here and you can't go with the obvious choice every single time or you'll just have the same ballot as most everyone else. Sometimes, I'd rather go with my heart and be wrong. The winner: Emmanuelle Riva -- AmourBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Alan Arkin -- Argo Robert De Niro -- Silver Linings PlaybookPhilip Seymour Hoffman -- The MasterTommy Lee Jones -- LincolnChristoph Waltz -- Django Unchained Everyone in this category has won before and you can make a convincing case for why any one of them will triumph (except for Hoffman). I think the smart money is on TommyLee Jones, though it's so close to call you might also say prognosticators are leaningtowards Christoph Waltz, who is so hilariously good in Django . Waltz would certainly get my vote, though I think he belongs in the Best Actor category alongside Jamie Foxx andmight go with the equally good Hoffman. But if my bet is right and Riva beats Lawrencefor Best Actress, I think voters will want to acknowledge Silver Linings Playbooksomehow. For me, De Niro has always been the sentimental favorite only Jones has goneso long in not winning) and it's his best performance in a long, long time. The Winner: Robert De Niro -- Silver Linings PlaybookBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSAmy Adams -- The Master Sally Field -- Lincoln Anne Hathaway -- Les Miserables Helen Hunt -- The Sessions Jacki Weaver -- Silver Linings Playbook The smart money is on Anne Hathaway, of course. She's almost as sure a bet as Daniel Day-Lewis; I'm sure Vegas betting on both of them closed long, long ago. My vote goes forAmy Adams and her very contained, controlling turn in The Master. Playing cold really suits her. But not as much as an Oscar will suit Hathaway for shaving her head andbelting it out. The winner: Anne Hathaway -- Les MiserablesBEST WRITING -- ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYAmour -- Michael Haneke Django Unchained -- Quentin Tarantino Flight -- John Gatins Moonrise Kingdom -- Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola Zero Dark Thirty -- Mark Boal The smart money is on Django Unchained with Moonrise Kingdom a stalking horse now that Zero Dark Thirty is too tainted for liberal Oscar voters to embrace. (That's unfair but true; whatever its faults in capturing the complexity of the official record, Zero Dark Thirty is by no means pro-torture and endeavors to capture the moral dilemmas torturing people raise.) I'd be happy if Amour or Moonrise won; though Moonrise is not Anderson's best it's a return to form. But Tarantino's work is sterling and hilarious and bold. Anyoneoffended by the dialogue in the movie should actually be offended by the dialogue in Gone With The Wind, not this tale of a man's revenge against brutal slave owners that uses thecoarse, dehumanizing language of the day. The Winner: Django Unchained -- Quentin Tarantino BEST WRITING -- ADAPTED SCREENPLAYArgo -- Chris Terrio Beasts Of The Southern Wild -- Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin Life Of Pi -- David Magee Lincoln -- Tony Kushner Silver Linings Playbook -- David O. Russell The smart money is on Argo , which is fine with me. If I were voting from this lot, I'd choose Beasts -- I have no idea how this movie sprang from a stage play and it's so visually striking that it seems the best accomplishment of the group. As for Lincoln , I have no problem with the kerfuffle over the voting record of imaginary politicians from Connecticut. But my biggest problem with Lincoln was the screenplay, which buried a solid hour of West Wing -like political machinations with an unnecessary prologue and tiresome epilogue showing the rest of Lincoln's life, the end of the Civil War and the assassination when the story had ended with the passage of the 13th amendment. I also despised the hagiography of the noble black characters, from the noble soldier to the noble maid, both of whom are far more eloquent in their speechifying than anyone in sight (including Lincoln) and arise to give their speeches at various points in fear that we might otherwise forget what the 13th amendment was about. Worst of all was the White House servant who gets a funny feeling and just has to turn around and take one last long at Lincoln as he heads for the theater. I'll take Samuel L. Jackson's servant in DjangoUnchained any day. Argo messes with the historical record far more than Lincoln but they're just ignoring Canadians and that apparently is ok. (Sorry, Mom.) The Winner: Argo -- Chris Terrio BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Brave FrankenweenieParaNormanThe Pirates! Band Of MisfitsWreck-It Ralph Frankly, none of these movies deserves the Oscar. Brave would be a lock if Pixar's first movie with a female heroine didn't have the unfortunate backstory of Pixar firing its first female director. Frankenweenie is an unnecessary expansion of a delightful short but the Academy does love Tim Burton. ParaNorman is a pretty good tale and the movie I'd probably vote for, edging out Brave just a tad. The Pirates! is silly fun but not quite as good as other Aardman movies. The smart money is on Wreck-It Ralph. Having just watched it, I'm astonished since it's the weakest of the bunch, mechanical and self-referential. Including references to old video games does not constitute characterdevelopment. On the assumption that Oscar loves to annoy me... The Winner: Wreck-It RalphBEST FOREIGN FILMAmour Kon-TikiNoA Royal AffairWar Witch It seems like a lock but the foreign film category is notorious for bizarre choices. You have to watch all five foreign films in order to vote so the fact that Amour was such a popular film with voters overall is meaningless. Still, it would be a shocking upset if Amour didn'twin. The Winner: Amour BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE5 Broken Cameras The GatekeepersHow To Survive A PlagueThe Invisible WarSearching For Sugar Man The smart money is on Searching For Sugar Man. Ironically, Argo, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are fictional films but have received all sorts of flak for their various fiddlings with the truth in order to tell a coherent story. On the other hand, Searching For Sugar Man is misleading, disingenuous or if you prefer downright false in its storytelling in order to create a simple sweet story that ignores a more complex truth. But no one seems to care. AND IT'S A DOCUMENTARY!! They're actually SUPPOSED to be accurate. Searching For Sugar Man tells the inspiring story of Sixto Rodriguez, an artist who recorded two very good albums in the early 1970s, neither of which made a ripple commercially in the U.S., and then slipped into obscurity. Little did he know that in apartheid South Africa his music became wildly popular and was an inspiration for rebellion among young white South Afrikaners who fought against the establishment. His albums were mainstays, alongside Simon & Garfunkel and other 1970s blockbusters. The rumor in that country was that Rodriguez had committed suicide onstage. So the film tellstwo stories: the story of an artist who works in construction and volunteers in various social justice projects in Detroit, Michigan. One day he finds himself whisked to South Africa where he's treated like a superstar. The other story is the one of fans who that country who become obsessed with Rodriguez and just want to find out information on him, only to discover the man isn't dead. It's like researching a story on Jimi Hendrix and suddenly finding yourself on the phone with Hendrix. Imagine your astonishment. It's alltrue. But the movie ignores the fact that Rodriguez was also rediscovered in the late 1970sand early 1980s in Australia, where he toured, recorded a live album and even opened forMidnight Oil. That spoils the Cinderella nature of the film, however, when you learn ithappened before. Never mind that finding this out is even more interesting; clearlyRodriguez simply does not have the all-consuming drive for success that drives majorartists who achieve popular fame. Further the movie is incredibly slow and plodding. Hisdaughter shows us the website she stumbles on and reads the comment she left sayingRodriguez is her father. Then we see the South African who says he was told someone lefta comment and how he read it and then he reads her comment all over again. We know!We just heard it! Every stage is laboriously detailed, which keeps Rodriguez off camera forhalf the movie, a stunt to maintain the mystery as to whether he's alive or not but whichis meaningless since everyone who sees the movie knows that he is. Finally, theinterviewing is poor, the many questions not asked mount up (such as how does thisfigure of rebellion for a certain segment of the country feel about concerts that seem todraw almost exclusively white people? if there's a black face in the audience in thoseconcerts, I didn't see them. How could the film not discuss this wildly relevant issue,especially given his social activism? The entire movie feels like a simple-hearted cheat. It'snot trying to be deceptive so much as telling the story as they know it. But that ignoresthe far more interesting story staring them in the face. My pick would be How To SurviveA Plague followed very closely by The Gatekeepers. Both are on my best of the year list. So guess what... The winner: Searching For Sugar ManBEST ORIGINAL SCOREAnna Karenina -- Dario Marianelli Argo -- Alexandre Desplat Life Of Pi -- Mychael Danna Lincoln -- John WilliamsSkyfall -- Thomas Newman Uninspired choices. I'd vote for Skyfall because it's good and action films rarely get recognized for their scores. But the smart money is on Mychael Danna and Life Of Pi , the least interesting work in a while from a good composer. The Winner: Life Of Pi -- Mychael Danna BEST ORIGINAL SONG"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from Ted"Pi's Lullaby" from Life Of Pi"Skyfall" from Skyfall"Suddenly" from Les Miserables The smart money is on "Skyfall" because it's a great James Bond theme song and absolutely deserves it. Plus, it's Adele! The only remote competition is "Suddenly" from Les Miserbles but I barely noticed the song and I know the stage musical very, very well. So barring an act of God... The Winner: "Skyfall" from SkyfallBEST SOUND EDITINGArgo -- Eric Aaadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn Django Unchained -- Wylie Stateman Life Of Pi -- Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton Skyfall -- Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers Zero Dark Thirty -- Paul N.J. Ottosson The Winner: Life Of Pi -- Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton BEST SOUND MIXING Argo -- John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia Les Miserables -- Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes Life Of Pi -- Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin Lincoln -- Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins Skyfall -- Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson The Winner: Les Miserables -- Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon HayesThe smart money is on...well, actually the smart money has no idea. Sound Editing and Sound Mixing are two of the categories people feel completely at sea about, no matter how often the Oscars do a segment showing how it works. However, Life Of Pi's success is all about technical achievement, so that movie is going to dominate the tech awards and it will win Sound Editing. However, the people behind Les Miserables have done a good job of hyping the fact that they recorded the singing live on the set (something not technically feasible for the most part even a few years ago) and Sound Mixing is the one place where the movie will get recognized other than Anne Hathaway. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Anna Karenina -- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey -- Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent and Simon Bright Les Miserables -- Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson Life Of Pi -- David Gropman and Anna Pinnock Lincoln -- Rick Carter and Jim Erickson I can talk myself into most anything but The Hobbit here. I'll deduct points from Life Of Pi because they'll dismiss it as all special effects. That leaves Lincoln as the favorite of the period pieces.The Winner: Lincoln -- Rick Carter and Jim Erickson BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYAnna Karenina -- Seamus McGarvey Django Unchained -- Robert Richardson Life Of Pi -- Claudio Miranda Lincoln -- Janusz Makinski Skyfall -- Roger Deakins The smart money is on Life Of Pi. Personally, I would have voted for the sterling work of Richardson on Django Unchained -- it had fun with all the conventions of the spaghetti westerns and 1970s movies in general, but always put the story and characters ahead of jokey zoom shots and the like. Still, I hated the cotton candy color of Life Of Pi so.... The Winner: Life Of Pi -- Claudio Miranda BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Hitchcock -- Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey -- Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane Les Miserables -- Lisa Westcott and Julie Darnell Special effects extravaganzas usually win though there's no love for The Hobbit from much of anyone. Les Miserables could sneak in here, but I'll still go with the splashy vote for all those furry hobbit feet. The Winner: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey -- Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami LaneBEST COSTUME DESIGN Anna Karenina -- Jacqueline Durran Les Miserables -- Paco Delgado Lincoln -- Joanna Johnston Mirror, Mirror -- Eiko Ishioka Snow White and the Huntsman -- Colleen Atwood It's a three way race but Lincoln and Les Miserables were too dark and muddy. The pretty dresses of Anna Karenina will win because Hollywood loves glamour. The Winner: Anna Karenina -- Jacqueline DurranBEST FILM EDITING Argo -- William Goldenberg Life Of Pi -- Tom Squyres Lincoln -- Michael Kahn Silver Linings Playbook -- Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers Zero Dark Thirty -- Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg There's no obvious choice here but Argo is the closest to an action film spectacle, the sort that usually dominates this category. The Winner: Argo -- William Goldenberg BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey -- Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White Life Of Pi -- Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer and Donald R. ElliottMarvel's The Avengers -- Janek Sirrs, jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick Prometheus -- Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill Snow White and the Huntsman -- Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson. The smart money, indeed all the money is on Life Of Pi. I couldn't stand the look and special effects of Life Of Pi (and the 3-D was, as always, pointless). I'd vote for Marvel's The Avengers. But there's little doubt that Life Of Pi will win. Another one of the evening's locks.The Winner: Life Of Pi -- Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer and Donald R. Elliott BEST ANIMATED SHORT Adam And Dog Fresh GuacamoleHead Over HeelsThe Longest DaycarePaperman The Winner: Fresh Guacamole BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT Asad Buzkashi BoysCurfewDeath Of A ShadowHenry The Winner: Curfew BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT Inocente Kings Point Mondays At RacineOpen HeartRedemption The Winner: Open HeartThe shorts categories used to be where you could really gain an edge back in the day. They used to be seen only in NYC and LA and if you actually took the time to head to ascreening, you could often spot an obvious winner in at least two of the categories. Now the shorts are shown commercially in some major cities, which is great. I'm glad they get more attention. If you're lucky enough to live in a town where they're shown and you are going to bet on the Oscars, by all means head to the screening. Winning two or threecategories that other people haven't a clue about is a great advantage. Here in New York, the shorts are shown commercially. But for the past decade, they've also been screened at the Academy Theatre at the Lighthouse. The Lighthouse is a worthygroup that fights vision loss through "prevention, treatment and empowerment." You canlearn more about their good work here. (Can I get a discount on laser surgery? Uh, no.) I've never quite understood why they have a movie theater there , but it's a great space for the New York branch of The Academy Of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. They havemonthly screenings of classic Hollywood movies, usually with the director or star or somerelated talent present for a Q&A afterwards. It's very inexpensive (even if you're not amember) so if you're in NYC or LA sign up and get their newsletter so you can catch wordon future events. They often sell out so you have to act fast. It's a fun day catching the shorts, though with two and a half to three hours of material to get through, I wish they'd skip all the padding and get to the movies as quickly as possible. This year, the batch of shorts was mostly uninspiring and almost satirical in itsbutton-pushing subject matter (Somali pirates, cancer, Afghanistan -- you name it. If it's aheart-tugging or politically explosive topic, the shorts are certain to go there. The smart money on the animated shorts is on Paperman , I think, because it's had the most attention and posted itself online. But you have to attend screenings of all five shorts to vote so that doesn't really give it an advantage. The Simpsons short The Longest Daycare was solid but the 3-D was annoying and unnecessary and it felt simply like a very good episode of The Simpsons, which is often Emmy worthy but not special enough for this. Some liked the artiness of Adam And Dog and others the romance of Paperman . When I spoke to people at the screening, everyone had their own theory as to what wouldwin and when -- but ask them what they liked the most and everyone said Fresh Guacamole. It's clever, visually innovative and has a nice little kicker at the end; plus it's the shortest of the five. I'm going with my heart on this one, especially since this category has been pretty funky in recent years and gone with the cutting edge picks. The live action shorts are hard to call as well, with no real standout. The smart money is on Curfew and I'm inclined to agree. Asad and Buzkashi Boys have exotic settings but cancel each other out. Death Of A Shadow is a murky, poorly thought out Twilight Zone episode. And the old man with dementia in Henry can only remind everyone that Amour was much much better. that leaves Curfew , which has an appealing sweetness amidst black humor and a nice little moment at the end. I didn't get a chance to catch the documentary shorts -- one big reason is that they're so darn long. Thanks to digital cameras, independent filmmakers aren't hamstrung by theexpense of film stock. They can shoot and shoot and shoot to their heart's delight, whichmeans the documentary shorts are increasingly flabby and show no discipline in theirediting. Forty minutes is a novella length for movies -- not short enough to be a short andnot long enough to be a feature. Tighter is almost always better. Just going on thecleverest title and the most heart-tugging of a group of heart-tugging tales, I'm going withOpen Heart. Good luck on your Oscar pool! Let me know which category I'm crazily wrong about and whether you win. Follow Michael Giltz on Twitter: www.twitter.com/michaelgiltz

Movies Oscar Preview Your Winning Oscar Ballot Is Here

📄 Movies Oscar Preview Your Winning Oscar Ballot Is Here

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