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T H U R S D A Y , S E P T E M B E R 3 0 , 2 0 0 4New LA Times Poll -- Kerry Gaining Ground?by Michael in New York on
9/30/2004 03:34:00 AMA new LA Times poll shows Bush with a 5% lead and says he'sgaining ground among some key independent groups. But it also saysif you look at registered voters (and not just "likely" voters) that thelead is only 4% and that the margin of error is 3%. That means thatthey could be anywhere from 1% to 7% apart.The annoying part? Despite numerous articles in the last day or twoabout polls and serious questions about the mix of voters involved,this poll never mentions its breakdown of voters -- was it 52%Republican and 38 % Dems or 45% of each with 10% independentsin both? Who knows? I looked through the article and the 22 pageattachment that broke down its poll and couldn't find that very basic,arguably crucial breakdown anywhere. Maybe I missed it. If I did, letme know. If I didn't, email the LA Times and ask them why they don'tinclude a breakdown of the people polled by party affiliation and askthem to provide it for this poll and all polls in the future.Let's face it: polling is an inexact science and some of these groupshave developed their own "secret formulas" for decades in an attemptto be accurate and beat out the compeition. That means they're bothleary (sic?) of revealing methodology and are such number geeksthat they've never been questioned before. People just took polls atface value, just like they never questioned their priests or ministerson questions of faith. Those days are over.
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1 of 64/6/09 10:13 PM
9/30/2004 03:34:00 AMA new LA Times poll shows Bush with a 5% lead and says he'sgaining ground among some key independent groups. But it also saysif you look at registered voters (and not just "likely" voters) that thelead is only 4% and that the margin of error is 3%. That means thatthey could be anywhere from 1% to 7% apart.The annoying part? Despite numerous articles in the last day or twoabout polls and serious questions about the mix of voters involved,this poll never mentions its breakdown of voters -- was it 52%Republican and 38 % Dems or 45% of each with 10% independentsin both? Who knows? I looked through the article and the 22 pageattachment that broke down its poll and couldn't find that very basic,arguably crucial breakdown anywhere. Maybe I missed it. If I did, letme know. If I didn't, email the LA Times and ask them why they don'tinclude a breakdown of the people polled by party affiliation and askthem to provide it for this poll and all polls in the future.Let's face it: polling is an inexact science and some of these groupshave developed their own "secret formulas" for decades in an attemptto be accurate and beat out the compeition. That means they're bothleary (sic?) of revealing methodology and are such number geeksthat they've never been questioned before. People just took polls atface value, just like they never questioned their priests or ministerson questions of faith. Those days are over.
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HuffPost PoliticsAllison Kilkenny: Obama, Nukes, and the World -While Obama's pursuit of nuclear disarmamentwould be noble, double standards, favoritism, andfear-mongering are cancerous elements that robthe U.S. of res...9 minutes agoFiredoglakeSave American Jobs: Close Your Chase Account -JP Morgan Chase refuses to do what it takes tosave 300,000 jobs and the healthcare of 700,000retirees. So I decided today to no longer be a partof that....34 minutes agoDaily Kos"Difference isn't a threat" - Dave Neiwert, theblogosphere's leading expert on the eliminationistmovement, has a typically excellent post about theweekend's tragic shooting at Croo...41 minutes agoEschatonDeep Thought - Why is Chris Hayes always on myteevee?43 minutes agoCrooks and LiarsNCAA Basketball Open Thread - Satire from TheOnion. Yeah, yer brackets are in the toilet. Openthread for the NCAA Championship game, a regularopen thread appears at 8:30 Pacific Ti...1 hour agoJ O H N ' S P H OT O S
ConservativesGet Involved and Join John Boehner Today!Learn More.FOJB.comThe Boston Globe: "A newGallup poll is finding growing levels ofsupport for..."www.boston.comStimulus Plan PollQuestions About The Stimulus Plan? - VoiceYour Opinionwww.StimulusPlan.com
www.Newsmax.comAds by Goooooogle AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth: New ...http://www.americablog.com/2004/09/new-la-times-poll-kerry-...
1 of 64/6/09 10:13 PM