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M O N D A Y , A U G U S T 2 2 , 2 0 0 5"Peak Oil" Makes It To The NYT Magazineby Michael in New York on
8/22/2005 11:05:00 PMA devoted faction of Americablog readers have been pushingthe argument over "peak oil" at every opportunity. They canrejoice! The NYT Magazine has a lengthy, interesting articleabout peak oil that goes into the debate in-depth. In short, theworld has perhaps a trillion of barrels of oil in reserve, per theNYT. But peak oil is a genuine concern worth looking at. Thebiggest revelation is a top Saudi expert who has retired andisn't afraid to say that the demand is increasing toodramatically for suppliers to keep up.''You look at the globe and ask, 'Where are the bigincrements?' and there's hardly anything but Saudi Arabia,''[Husseini] said. ''The kingdom and Ghawar field are not theproblem. That misses the whole point. The problem is thatyou go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 82.5 in2003 to 84.5 in 2004. You're leaping by two million to threemillion a year, and if you have to cover declines, that'sanother four to five million.'' In other words, if demand anddepletion patterns continue, every year the world will needto open enough fields or wells to pump an additional six toeight million barrels a day -- at least two million newbarrels a day to meet the rising demand and at least fourmillion to compensate for the declining production ofexisting fields. ''That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia everycouple of years,'' Husseini said. ''It can't be doneindefinitely. It's not sustainable.''A crisis could come in 1 year or 2 or 10, says the writer and it will beall the more painful because we're doing nothing to prepare.
AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth: "Peak ...http://www.americablog.com/2005/08/peak-oil-makes-it-to-nyt...
1 of 17/24/09 7:16 PM
8/22/2005 11:05:00 PMA devoted faction of Americablog readers have been pushingthe argument over "peak oil" at every opportunity. They canrejoice! The NYT Magazine has a lengthy, interesting articleabout peak oil that goes into the debate in-depth. In short, theworld has perhaps a trillion of barrels of oil in reserve, per theNYT. But peak oil is a genuine concern worth looking at. Thebiggest revelation is a top Saudi expert who has retired andisn't afraid to say that the demand is increasing toodramatically for suppliers to keep up.''You look at the globe and ask, 'Where are the bigincrements?' and there's hardly anything but Saudi Arabia,''[Husseini] said. ''The kingdom and Ghawar field are not theproblem. That misses the whole point. The problem is thatyou go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 82.5 in2003 to 84.5 in 2004. You're leaping by two million to threemillion a year, and if you have to cover declines, that'sanother four to five million.'' In other words, if demand anddepletion patterns continue, every year the world will needto open enough fields or wells to pump an additional six toeight million barrels a day -- at least two million newbarrels a day to meet the rising demand and at least fourmillion to compensate for the declining production ofexisting fields. ''That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia everycouple of years,'' Husseini said. ''It can't be doneindefinitely. It's not sustainable.''A crisis could come in 1 year or 2 or 10, says the writer and it will beall the more painful because we're doing nothing to prepare.
AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth: "Peak ...http://www.americablog.com/2005/08/peak-oil-makes-it-to-nyt...
1 of 17/24/09 7:16 PM